Flybe quit Manston: analysis
Too few passengers
Flybe's decision makes it absolutely clear – Manston does not have the makings of a successful passenger airport.
The current owners of Manston airport (Infratil) have always pushed the story that they want Manston to be a mixed passenger and freight airport. We know that Ryanair and easyJet have both examined Manston airport carefully in the past. They both came to the same conclusion: if Manston airport was 10 miles further West, it would have a large enough catchment area to have the potential to succeed as a passenger airport.
However, given that it is not practical to move the airport, the fact remains that 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea. This is a simple and inescapably obvious fact that has been overlooked or ignored by Manston's owners ever since it was privatised.
Too few airlines
Infratil has also always made it clear that the passenger element of the passenger/freight mix would be provided by the low-cost no-frills carriers such as Ryanair, easyJet and Flybe. As far as we know, Ryanair has not seriously considered operating out of Manston. Easyjet would presumably have considered Manston before finally choosing Southend airport this summer as the base for its new routes to Europe.
Flybe has run routes from Manston to Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast. The Manchester flights were scratched earlier this year, and now Flybe has decided to scratch the Edinburgh and Belfast flights. It is worth noting that all three routes showed realistic promise – they are well-populated, have active business centres, and are tourist attractions in their own right.
Too small a catchment area
In all fairness, the timings and frequencies of the flights as scheduled could have been better, but Flybe presented Manston with a reasonable chance to succeed. Manston failed because 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea, and fish don't have much use for planes. As Flybe's spokesman put it:
It is fair to say that Manston is one of the airports with the smaller catchment areas in the United Kingdom, and you have Gatwick not too far away.
Just six weeks ago, shortly after Flybe's second profit warning in five months, Flybe's chairman Jim French declared an end to the boom in domestic air travel and reported a deepening drop in demand, citing a "very, very flat situation across the industry".
Both Flybe and the airport have referred to the tough economic conditions that have caused Flybe to review its 200 routes, but the brutally simple fact is that it is only the Manston routes that have been cut.
Night flights
Nowhere in any of their press releases do Flybe make any reference to night flights having any bearing on their decision. The Edinburgh and Belfast flights are being scratched because there weren't enough passengers, despite the active marketing in Scotland and Kent, which Flybe has attributed to the challenging economic environment.
It is worth noting, incidentally, that Flybe operate a number of routes out of George Best Belfast City Airport. They fly to Aberdeen, Benbecula, Birmingham, Bristol, Campbeltown, Cardiff, Dundee, East Midlands, Edinburgh, Exeter, Glasgow International, Guernsey, Inverness, Islay, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kirkwall, Leeds Bradford, London Gatwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Newquay, Norwich, Southampton, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Tiree, and Wick - and that's just the UK destinations.
George Best Belfast City Airport has no night flights, as flights are banned between 9:30pm and 6:30am. A ban on night flights does not prevent an airport being successful - but an absence of passengers does. Which brings us neatly to Charles Buchanan's assertion in the recent Gazette article that:
The decision by Flybe reinforces the need for the airport's proposals for limited and managed scheduled night-time flights to be agreed with Thanet District Council in order to compete with other national and regional airports.
Flybe's decision does nothing of the sort. Flybe's decision is simply further evidence that Manston cannot attract and retain passenger airlines for the simple reason that it cannot provide enough passengers.
Manston's ambition to be a mixed passenger and freight airport can never be realised. Manston is hoping to attract more freight business by being open throughout the night, and thus becoming the only 24-hour freight airport in the south-east. That's what the night flights are for - they are not for easy access to cheap sunshine holidays, they are for night freight.
Charles Buchanan, EasyJet, FlyBe, Ryanair Manston
Reader Comments (62)
In any case It was all a bit of a waste of time as TDC doesn't have the power to stop Manston operating at night anyway
So if an open air concert venue requests a planning application, do you really think it's fair to get Bob and Carol's view on the matter, even though they live 15 miles away in another town? The focus point with a consultation should be with those who are going to have to live with the 100 db noise nuisance throughout the night. In this case it's people living under the direct flight path and they have opposed in their droves.
Before the record resets with "you moved their yada yada yada". Manston has 17 unopposed hours of each and every day to roll planes down its runway, Instead we have tumble weeds!
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Clive Hart, said: “Our public consultation clearly demonstrated that a large number of residents were against the introduction of night-time flying. Having considered the views of local people etc etc. . ."
It wasn't a "public consultation;" and "a large number" weren't, a minority were and the views of only a small hand full were considered. Like most Labour led council's it couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.
And what's this 100dB noise nuisance that's going to be happening throughout the night. Go check your facts before you start spouting nonsense.
Yes 100db was being a little conservative given all the concrete and building sound reflection and so on in the town centre. I bet there are many pockets in the area that reach much higher given that an average 747 can generate 140db.
Anyway if Manston can do what it likes, where are all the planes flying over at night?
Or
"Infratil airports Europe discontinued operation following decision for market sale".
Are these the the big announcements made by Infratil today?
James, it's called democracy mate.
Ah and welcome back the Medusa of this thing, the multi pseudonymous Igloo. Lies eh? I shall enjoy rubbing salt in your wound but sadly will have to wait until the i has been dotted and the t crossed. Takes time you know, Manston wasn't sold in a day but with the financial clout of what's coming it could probably be totally rebuilt in one.
And then there's Avid? No is the answer. And Slipway????
Cheer up chaps, it's not all doom and gloom at least you'll have each other
No. Democracy is when the people of Ramsgate decide they don't want night-flights and the Council acts in accordance with the people's wishes. I know you and your Tory mates don't like it but, frankly, who cares? So, now your telling us that the i's haven't been dotted and the t's haven't been crossed on the "big announcement? In my experience dotting the i's and crossing the t's doesn't take too long. It's been over six weeks since you started banging on about a big announcement. Either there isn't one, or the problems are a lot bigger than you are admitting to. Either way, you're a liar.
A company that generates £10bn of revenue didn't achieve it by not being careful. Stop being so impatient, you'll find out soon enough.