Well, here's a surprise - I asked Manston and Infratil and their spin doctors to justify their absurd job figures, and there's been absolute silence. Maybe it's just me - maybe they just won't talk to me. Maybe it would help if YOU asked them...
Employment, Forecast Infratil, Manston, Night flights 
Dear Charles Buchanan (CEO Manston), Maxim PR (Manston's spin doctors), Infratil (Manston's owners), and anyone who believes Manston's job forecasts:
Charles Buchanan, Employment, Forecast, Maxim PR 
I wonder if Sir Roger Gale MP understands aviation. He says that "the new Secretary of State for Transport, Justine Greening, needs to take a long, hard, look at the available and under-used facilities that already exist. That must, of course, include Manston." And then what? What does he think will happen after this purposeful looking?
The top end of the aviation industry is characterised by huge budgets and small margins. The successful players continually examine and re-examine every opportunity the market has to offer. It is a very pure form of market-driven capitalism, and as his ex-Boss once said "You can't buck the market".
The major (and minor) players in the aviation industry have been examining, and then rejecting, Manston for over a decade. In addition, throughout that time, each owner of Manston has been doing their utmost to attract business. Does Sir Roger really think that a thoughtful stare from a Secretary of State is going to transform a history of hard-headed rejections into a future of warm-hearted embraces?
Boris Island, Forecast, Grain, Heathrow, Roger Gale MP Manston Plans for night flights at Manston International Airport have been shot down by an independent report. Herne Bay campaigner Phil Rose said:
“This confirms a lot of what the No Night Flights campaign has been saying for the past two years. The original proposal and back-up documents submitted by Infratil were putting a very, very, positive spin on things. They were promising more than the airport could deliver, and they understated the effect night flights would have on the local population.”
Employment, Forecast, Noise, Parsons Brinckerhoff Infratil, Manston, Night flights 
Nights flights will not be the salvation of Manston airport, according to campaigners who say that a report from a leading transport consultancy backs their views.
Community groups say they do not believe allowing the flights would bring any economic benefit to the residents of Thanet, and may in fact bring harm to the area due to the impact of noise and air pollution.
Many also say that if the proposed operations went ahead, they could actually deter people who might be planning to move their businesses to the area or thinking of buying a home there.
24/7, Andrew Ogden, CPRE, Clive Hart, Employment, Forecast, Hilary Newport, Parsons Brinckerhoff, York Aviation Infratil, Manston, Night flights, TDC 
Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) put Manston’s request in the context of increasing demand for aviation services, particularly in the south-east of England:
[p3] … the demand for aviation services is set to dramatically increase in the next 20 years. The conclusion is therefore that better use needs to be made of the existing facilities.
The obvious solution would be for Manston to use its daytime capacity, but this never gets a mention.
Forecast, Freight, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Quota Manston, Night flights 
Manston airport currently runs on a skeleton crew of about 100 - the bare minimum required to handle any number of flights. Quadrupling the present number of flights wouldn’t result in a quadrupling of the present staff numbers.
The Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) report points out that there’s plenty of staff capacity to be taken up:
[p8] Given that Manston Airport currently employs a proportionately large workforce for a small throughput, growth of passengers and freight in the short term may not necessarily lead to a significant employment and hence economic impact.
The PB report also raises a very good point which, as far as I know, has never been addressed - how much slack capacity is there, how much more traffic can Manston handle before they have to employ more people?
[p8] We would therefore like to see more evidence of the ‘threshold’ whereby Manston Airport achieves a specified level of throughput such that additional employment is required.
Next installment: Noise
Employment, Forecast, Parsons Brinckerhoff Manston, Night flights 
York Aviation come in for a lot of flak. I’ve started a list of the explicit criticisms that Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) make in the first few pages of their methodology, assumptions and conclusions… see how many more you can find.
York Aviation’s analysis is entirely based on a discredited Master Plan:
[p5] The basis of the analysis provided by York Aviation is the passenger and freight forecasts contained within MIA’s Master Plan published in November 2009. We would note that despite the forecasts only being two years old, the airport is not achieving the level of forecast passenger growth
Forecast, Parsons Brinckerhoff, York Aviation Airport owners have been accused of trying to "pull a fast one" after revealing new plans for night flights over Herne Bay. Controversy has boiled for the past two years over the policy, with Manston Airport owners Infratil keen to boost the number of night flights at the Thanet airport.
Under the current agreement the airport is not allowed any scheduled flights between 11pm and 7am. But in a new revised proposal submitted on Friday, Infratil says it will limit any flights between 11.30pm and 6am to less than two a night and will comply with a strict noise quota.
But the policy leaves them free to fly as many planes as they want - unrestricted by noise limits - between 11pm and 11.30pm and 6am and 7am.
Manston, Night flights 
Flybe has declared an end to the boom in domestic air travel as the regional airline reported a deepening drop in demand for British routes.
The Exeter-based carrier runs domestic services which include Manchester to Norwich and Aberdeen to Gatwick, but the fallibility of its business to UK demand has been underlined by two profit warnings this year.
Flybe avoided another surprise on earnings on Wednesday as it published first-half results, though an increase of pre-tax profits in the six months to 30 September of £8.2m to £14.3m had been forecast to be significantly higher at one point this year. Before the profit warnings, Flybe had been expecting to make £36m.
As well as the poor profits performance, the results contained a further admission of weakness in the UK market. Flybe said winter bookings were down 1% compared with last year, confirming a deterioration of sales on top of an already poor outlook. Only last month Flybe had forecast a 1% increase in winter bookings.
Some regional airports could go out of business if the Government fails to recognise their important role in easing the nation’s capacity crisis. That's the warning from Manston Airport chief executive Charles Buchanan.
He argues that direct and immediate action is needed to resolve the short and long-term airport capacity shortages at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted where new runways have been ruled out indefinitely. In Manston's submission to a consultation on aviation policy, he urges the Government to look to existing regional airports to buy time for longer term plans to be explored.
Manston 
Charles Buchanan (CEO, Manston Airport) from the night flights proposal:
Today some 110 staff are employed by the airport, with approximately a further 40 employed in servicing the operation of the airport. The airport currently generates £4.5m GVA (Gross Added Value) of which some £3.8m is within the Thanet economy ... development in line with the published Master Plan would (by 2018) support direct employment of over 2,000 jobs with a further 1,000 indirect and induced jobs in the wider economy. This level of employment would generate £65m GVA.
Sandra Matthews-Marsh (CEO, Visit Kent) responding to RGF funding
Tourism in East Kent contributes more than £835 million to the local economy and supports almost 18,000 jobs.
Now consider the effect that the proposed night flight timetable will have on tourism in East Kent.
24/7, Employment, Forecast, Tourism Manston, Night flights 
Up to eight flights a night could take off and land at Kent International Airport, according to plans submitted to Thanet District Council. Bosses at the airport have submitted their long-awaited night-time flight policy, and campaigners now have 12 weeks to have their say on the proposals.
Managers say allowing flights between 11pm and 7am would attract more business to the area. They are banned under the airport's current planning agreement with the council.
24/7, Bob Bayford, Charles Buchanan, Consultation, Employment, Forecast Manston, Night flights, TDC 
A Kent airport has resubmitted its proposals for night flights. Manston airport, near Ramsgate, has asked Thanet Council for permission to run at least six flights between 11pm and 7am. Bosses said the plans would create around 3,000 jobs by 2018 and are vital for the long-term future of the company. Charles Buchanan, Chief Executive at Manston, commented:
"For the airport to be commercially viable in the longer term and deliver for Kent what other airports have done for their regions, it is vital that we are allowed to compete in terms of the operating hours."
24/7, Bob Bayford, Charles Buchanan, Consultation, Employment, Forecast Manston, Night flights, TDC 
A Kent airport is asking for permission to operate night flights. Manston Airport wants Thanet District Council to allow an average of eight take-offs or landings per night. The move would allow the operation to attract new airlines and a study suggested it could create more than 3,000 jobs.
But opponents fear it could pave the way for 24-hour arrivals and departures. The proposal is for three flights between 23:00 and 23:30, two flights between 23:30 and 06:00 and three between 06:00 and 07:00.
24/7, Charles Buchanan, Employment, Forecast Manston, Night flights, TDC 
The research says that it wouldn’t. The UK exports tourists rather than importing them - more Brits fly abroad for their holidays than foreigners come here.
The UK currently runs a “tourism deficit” of £19 billion a year and about £17 billion of that flies out of the UK every year with people flying abroad on holiday. This aviation tourism deficit is costing the UK about 900,000 jobs a year because people spend their money abroad instead of here.
Employment, Forecast, Q&A, Tourism Manston, Night flights, TDC 
Indirect employment is just a way of double-counting people who are already employed in other industries. If every industry counted its indirect employment the way airports do, the number of people employed in British industry would far exceed the total UK population!
Employment, Forecast, Q&A Infratil, Manston, Night flights 
Far from it. You’ve only got to look at airports that have the kind of passenger business that Manston hopes for to see the truth:
Bristol – 439 jobs per million passengers.
Bournemouth – 408 jobs per million passengers now, and expected to fall to 247 by 2015
Prestwick (another Infratil airport) – 248 jobs per million passengers, and that was before the last two rounds of redundancies.
Bournemouth, Bristol, Employment, Forecast, Prestwick, Q&A Infratil, Manston, Night flights 
Infratil (who own Manston) also own Prestwick Airport near Glasgow. In autumn 2008 Infratil’s forecast for passenger numbers at Prestwick was 5.7 million by 2018 and 12 million by 2033...
Almost immediately, freight and passenger business plummeted, and Prestwick ran at a loss for the rest of the year. Shortly after that, 50 staff lost their job. By autumn 2010, passenger business had fallen so much that another 120 staff had been made redundant... so much for Infratil’s forecasts.
Charles Buchanan, Employment, Forecast, MasterPlan, Prestwick, Q&A Infratil, Manston, Night flights 
If only! Even the Department for Transport says that airport Master Plans tend to be so over-optimistic about future passenger numbers that it applies its own “pinch of salt” discount when it produces its national forecasts.
For example: in 1991 Manchester Airport wanted to build a second runway, and promised this would create 50,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs.
The runway opened in 2001, and by 2006 there were 4,000 additional jobs at the airport. Even allowing for another 2,000 indirect and induced jobs, the promise of 50,000 extra jobs was just a flight of fancy.
Employment, Forecast, MasterPlan, Q&A Manston 
