Manston's dreams and nightmares

"Nostrildamus nose the future"Nostrildamus says:

• Infratil's Charles Buchanan will shortly unveil his plans to stuff our ears with plane noise 24 hours a day.
• He will brandish carrots and sticks as if they were real.
• He will repeat the mantra that the airport will have to close if the proposals aren't accepted.
• He will never say that he will close the airport - far too personal.
• He will want to distract attention from the fact that the closure of the airport is  a purely commercial decision, already more than half-made.

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Surely we can trust Infratil’s numbers?

Infratil (who own Manston) also own Prestwick Airport near Glasgow. In autumn 2008 Infratil’s forecast for passenger numbers at Prestwick was 5.7 million by 2018 and 12 million by 2033...

Almost immediately, freight and passenger business plummeted, and Prestwick ran at a loss for the rest of the year. Shortly after that, 50 staff lost their job. By autumn 2010, passenger business had fallen so much that another 120 staff had been made redundant... so much for Infratil’s forecasts.

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If it’s in the Master Plan, it must be right. Right?

If only! Even the Department for Transport says that airport Master Plans tend to be so over-optimistic about future passenger numbers that it applies its own “pinch of salt” discount when it produces its national forecasts.

For example: in 1991 Manchester Airport wanted to build a second runway, and promised this would create 50,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs.

The runway opened in 2001, and by 2006 there were 4,000 additional jobs at the airport. Even allowing for another 2,000 indirect and induced jobs, the promise of 50,000 extra jobs was just a flight of fancy.

Manston boss claims it wasn't a "sweetener"

Bitter-sweetener

Manston's boss has defended efforts to persuade the government to underwrite the costs of a new service out of the Kent airport. Chief executive Charles Buchanan said subsidies from the public purse were commonplace and it was unfair to describe them as sweeteners.

His comments follow our disclosure that KCC and Infratil, which operates the airport, had sought to persuade ministers to provide £600,000 to underwrite a twice-daily service out of Manston for the first three years of its operation.

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Belfast route opens

New flights have started between Manston and Belfast's George Best airport. The first of the Flybe services arrived in Thanet at lunchtime on Thursday. Flights will run between Manston and Belfast three times a week on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. The route takes 90 minutes and will initially run for the summer, with plans to extend it if the service proves popular.

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Passenger flight plans grounded at Manston

The global financial crisis has delayed plans to run more passenger services out of Kent International Airport. But airport chiefs, confident it is a short-term dip, have published a master plan that foresees gradual expansion over the next 20 years to around six million passengers a year. Freight operations are forecast to reach 400,000 tonnes. Matt Clarke, KIA chief executive, said:

"Like most businesses in the UK aviation marketplace our business has felt the impact of the recession. Our air cargo business has proved itself to be resilient but the recent market activity has delayed our plans for passenger service expansion in 2009.

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Wiggins' routes discovered

A red letter day, dear reader. One of my undercover researchers (codename: Casey) has unearthed a map of the routes agreed between Wiggins and TDC many moons ago. Apparently one of the lead negotiators from the TDC side was Cllr Harrison. These 'people-friendly' routes didn't make it into the Section 106 Agreement due to an oversight by, er, Cllr Harrison. Shame.

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In a nutshell: airport manners

• The Draft Masterplan for KIA is indicative but insubstantial – it needs to be redrafted, and then put out to consultation properly.
• The Section 106 Agreement should reflect the needs of everyone affected by the operation of the airport, not just Infratil and TDC.
• There is absolutely no need or justification for night flights (other than emergency diversions).
• Flight paths should avoid population centres by overflying the sea, or sparsely populated land.
• If overflying towns is unavoidable, the planes could fly higher for longer, and then descend more steeply.
• These ‘people-friendly’ routes should be agreed and implemented before flight volumes increase.
• Infratil must demonstrate that the routes are being adhered to by recording and reporting what the planes actually do, by installing adequate noise and pollution monitoring equipment and ensuring it is used consistently.
• The readings from all the monitoring equipment must be recorded consistently, and the recorded readings must be published frequently and regularly (e.g. on-line).
• Failure to comply with the S106 agreement must be reported and fined. Any decisions not to fine must be explained.

In a nutshell: Manston

Manston a.k.a. Kent International Airport is an ex-RAF base in north-east Kent, just west of Ramsgate. It passed from the RAF to Wiggins, then PlaneStation, owners of EUJet (a budget passenger airline). EUJet went bust, and in August 2005 the administrators sold Manston to Infratil, a New Zealand-based multi-national infrastructure investor.

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Airport Working Party, 19 May 2009

Hours' worth of minutes

Dear reader, this is how some of us frittered our lives. There's plenty to pick over here, all comments welcome. I've added paragraph numbering for ease of reference and some comments (original version on TDC's website HERE). Council Officer in charge of the AWP: Charles Hungwe.

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Infratil's flawed bid

Seppuku Lite

As I mentioned recently, before getting revolted by Infratil’s selfishness, the pile of poo they presented to TDC was the carefully considered best efforts of a wealthy, globe-spanning organisation aiming to win support from a strategic partner at a key point in the development of its European operations.

It is a public declaration of commercial weakness; of ongoing and increasing failure; of a flawed business model; of narrow short-termism and strategic poverty.

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CCC's Regeneration Department

My favourite starfish

In the interests of spreading our love and help far and wide we (Mrs Earplugs and I) met up with some of the Canterbury people who will be dealing with Thanet District Council over the next few months while Infratil’s Masterplan is being goggled at.

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YES WE CAN: make it work

Profitable. Sustainable. Sound commercial proposition. Good corporate citizen. These are just some of the good things that happen when you work with, rather than against, those around you. It's not rocket science. It's not even science. It's sense.

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YES WE CAN: monitor

Yes we can: the story so far… Infratil need Manston to be very busy; night flights are a bad thing; and the daytime flight paths must be designed to be as people-friendly as possible. So what happens next? Step aboard the time machine of your imagination, and gracefully swoop into the future…

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Changes to airport master plan

Clipping: thisiskent

Thanet council’s leading group is to consider a report recommending changes to the Manston airport draft master plan. On Thursday, April 9 the Tory cabinet will discuss recommendations made by its airport working party, chaired by Cllr Bob Bayford, in response to proposals put forward by airport owners Infratil.

Proposed amendments include more specific measurable targets on the airport’s environmental goals including sustainability, becoming carbon neutral, and emission control including proposals on airline offsetting measures.

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No case for night flights

Something of the night

They must be bats, wanting to fly in the dark. Not in the squeaky, blood-sucking sense. Just a bit nutso. Re-tune your ears and minds to human frequencies and I'll explain...

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Freight over-stated

Nosey, picky

Infratil's silver-tongued spinners at Maxim PR told the world that Manston currently handled "33,000 tonnes of freight" when they trumpeted Infrapenny's MasterPlan (8th Oct 2008). Oops.

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It's your choice, Manston told

Manston Airport has taken a step into the big league by unveiling an £8 million apron and taxiway. Aviation minister David Jamieson officially opened the 10 acres of concrete by cutting a ceremonial ribbon. The new facility can take more and larger aircraft under a master plan that could see £150 million invested in the Thanet airport, including a new terminal and fast rail links with London over the next 10 years.

These plans could see jobs rise from 400 to 6,000, and passenger numbers soar to thee million within five years. Talks are already well advanced with low-cost airlines to operate scheduled services and a deal could be finalised by the end of the year.

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